What is confirmation bias?
Confirmation bias is a form of cognitive bias, which often manifests as an inability or unwillingness to spot faults in arguments with which we agree. To put it more simply we all like to be told what we want to hear.
Now imagine for a second that you were desperate for some circumstantial evidence to persuade somebody that a third party had done something. For example, perhaps it might suit your legal case to believe that a particular individual had posted uncomplimentary comments about you in a blog to which you have taken exception. (Like this one http://sharkresorts.blogspot.co.uk/)
You engage the services of an "expert" and pay him a significant sum to "prove" the validity of the thesis you are proposing.
The "expert" comes back with some information. Part of that information does not support your thesis, but you both feel able to ignore that. The universe of information provided is not complete as it fails to take into account some vital facts, but neither you nor your "expert" seem to be (or want to be) aware of that. Part of the information appears to support your thesis but only circumstantially - and only as long as you ignore any missing or inconvenient evidence.
So you are happy - your thesis appears to be supported by some "facts", and because this is what you want to believe you are happy to ignore the inconvenient evidence, and the fact that the evidence is incomplete.
Your "expert" is happy too because he has given you what you wanted and has presumably been handsomely paid.
The only problem is that you have let yourself be blinded by wanting something so badly that you disregard reality, and as a result your thesis can be pulled apart by anyone who has all the evidence to hand.
Now you are not so happy because you look rather silly
That is confirmation bias.
[Oh look - this page has no date on it either - when was this one published?]
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